Where to start: asking why?
In August 2021 the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released its latest Climate report “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”. For the ones less familiar with their activities, the IPCC is the United Nations body for assessing the science related climate change. More and more this type of scientific based information is showcased and referred to in daily news bulletins aiming to make the public aware. Nevertheless, it is more and more difficult to deny the evidence when extreme wheatear events are happening more often than ever before our very eyes. It is irrefutable that we are living in times where systemic changes must happen, otherwise those terrifying models and predictions will become in one way or another a future reality.
Global CO2 emissions keep on increasing the same as the GDP has done since the 70’s decade. Although relative decoupling between world carbon dioxide emissions and real GDP per capita is more evident in developed countries, it is not the case when the trend is extrapolated globally, we cannot deny the sustainability problem the traditional economic growth model implies. According to the IEA data, the International Energy Agency, more than 30,000 million of CO2 tons were emitted to the atmosphere in 2017. This means that since the 70’s decade the accumulated CO2 emitted to the atmosphere goes beyond the 1000 Gt.
Based on the different models generated by the IPCC, when we want to emphasize the urgency, over time, and not only phrase it as a race with a targeted date, we better use the carbon budgets, including the acknowledgment on the level of uncertainty that non-CO2 emissions bring into the models. The remanent emissions capacity of CO2 emissions from 2015 onwards is about 1140 CO2 Gt before reaching the 2C temperature increase (with at least 50% likelihood) and 240 if the maximum global temperature increase is 1.5C (with at least 66% likelihood). Overall, budgets will be very stringent, given the experience in the past decades and future trends.
By now, we should be familiar with the Paris Agreement, which aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. Limiting global warming to 1.5 C implies very ambitious, internationally cooperative policy environments that transform both supply and demand. Since 2016, the year it entered into forced, low-carbon solutions and new markets are becoming competitive but simply put, current national pledges on mitigation and adaptation are just not enough.
The industrial sector is a vital source of wealth, prosperity and social value on a global level. It encompasses a wide and complex range of industries that extract, refine and manufacture many of the materials and products in the global economy. This contribution is not made without generating a great impact in terms of greenhouse emissions. After electricity, heat generation and transportation, industrial manufacturing and construction are the third biggest source of emission from fuel combustion with an overall contribution of 19% of the emissions globally. In Europe, industry is responsible for 15% of total emissions. When we zoom in the industrial manufacturing, the three most energy-intensive industries to pay attention to are cement, steel and basic chemicals.
“Our economies are heavily dependent on petrochemicals, but the sector receives far less attention than it deserves. Petrochemicals are one of the key blind spots in the global energy debate, especially given the influence they will exert on future energy trends.”
Although the chemical sectors consumes as much energy as cement and steel production, the CO2 emissions are relatively less, with 1.5 Gt CO2, which accounts for the 18% of industrial emissions. This is because of two factors, first of all, chemical sector consumes more natural gas than the other two, which traditionally have been more carbon based. In addition, the carbon is locked in the final product and only released when it is burned or the material decomposes. We have to realize that our everyday lives depends on products made from petrochemicals. In addition, many products needed for the clean energy transition rely on petrochemicals.
The petrochemical industry uses fuels in two ways, as energy used in the process and as feedstock. In 2017, the chemical industry accounted for 14% of oil demand and 8% of gas demand. What should catch our attention is that a third of the fuel growth demand in 2030 will be generated by this industry.
Within a framework of urgent action needed, the petrochemical industry faces the dichotomy of an expected strong growth while being responsible to reduce emissions drastically. The various manufacturing processes with an intense carbon footprint can be improved through energy efficiency, but to achieve the required decarbonisation, the substitution of fossil fuels and raw materials is essential. The chemical industry is poised for significant growth and investment, which presents an opportunity for adoption of greener chemical technologies.
